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Open an Account Not ready? Sign up for a demo account. Financial strength and security. Latest Research NFP preview: Stocks succumb to surging bond yields October 4, 6: Tuesday, December 25, With significant variance in the range of forecasts on offer and fast changing perceptions of risk, financial markets could be in for a prolonged period of volatility. Key themes for include, have central banks averted a massive rise in corporate defaults or will further cash injections be required as losses continue to be disclosed?
Will the US housing market recover? Will the UK housing market collapse? Is the UK retail sector in for a tough period? Will commodity markets and emerging market equities come off the boil?
Are markets too complacent about inflation risk, so will bond yields rise in the major economies? Central Banks Likely to Succeed Coordinated central bank actions to ease liquidity strains in money markets in our view will ultimately have significant positive implications for financial markets and the economy. Yet financial markets have yawned at the moves. Liquidity pressures emerged here and in Europe from two sources.
One is the overhang of uncertainty about the value of collateral and the economic outlook. A second is the reintermediation of the banking system, which still has further to go.
Banks and securities firms have become risk averse, hoarding cash and demanding a premium to lend in the interbank market.
At the beginning of this week, that premium was running about bp. It is still the clash between relatively strong economic figures and the long shadow of the credit crisis that is affecting business confidence. While actual economic numbers have been fine, albeit with a few exceptions, the credit crisis intensified in November and December, and it is probably this development that has pulled confidence a little further down. The general picture of business confidence is that growth is around or a little above trend.
Full Story a Year to be Remembered: In this edition of the Weekly Bottom Line, we take a look back at a year that was — to say the least — memorable. The outbreak of the so-called credit crunch this past summer has prompted investors to look at risk through a new lens with enormous implications for the trajectory of prices of bond, equity, commodities and foreign exchange.
Chief Economist, Wachovia As this tumultuous year draws to a close we thought it appropriate to outline some key themes we see for the coming year. Much of this draws from our Annual Outlook, which is available on our web site. This year is ending with lots of talk about the possibility of recession. The R word first made its way back into the economic discussion back in late February, when Alan Greenspan addressed a group of investors in Japan and stated that he saw a one in three chance of the U.
By the end of the year, he had upped his odds to a chance of a recession in the next year. Based on its proprietary theoretical concept and display of market price action, J-Chart provides a much clearer and unique insight into the market than conventional charting methods. This innovative charting and market analysis tool is designed to visualize market price action that constructs unique price patterns called "Equilibriums".
Based on its "non-fixed time frame" concept and "Kinetic Equilibrium" application, J-Chart users are able to forecast markets' future movements with high accuracy. Posted by jang at 8: Over the past 6 years, the financial markets have become irrationally exuberant. Record low volatilities in the foreign exchange market sparked a vigorous appetite for risk, one that caused money market and state funds, which are suppose to be extremely conservative to be exposed to subprime risk.
The hunt for yield and the belief that the good times would continue tempted many managers to look to increase their returns by investing in mortgage backed securities. The availability of cheap and easy money also led many mangers to leverage their bets which escalated their risk. Unfortunately the problems in the subprime sector blew up in and everyone learned the consequences of taking excess risk, the hard way.
The lesson that money managers and investors learned in is to be more selective with their investments, be less exposed to risky assets and more conservative with leverage. For the foreign exchange market, this will have a direct impact on carry trades. The primary reason why carry trades have thrived over the past few years is because volatility fell to a record low.
They have now doubled from their June levels which means that carry trades will no longer be easy one way bets. The multi-decade highs that we have grown accustomed to will be much more difficult to achieve as everyone becomes more careful with their investments and strive not to repeat the mistakes made in Also, with the US dollar falling to a record low against the Euro, currencies have become water cooler talk.
The general public has become much more aware of how currencies can affect their daily way of life and this is a lesson that will remain with them for the foreseeable future. Countries around the world and the financial markets have become much more intertwined, or in other words globalization has also been taken to another level this past year. Sovereign wealth funds have become a force to be reckoned with.
Saudi Arabia also just announced that they are setting up their fund which is a big reason why we expect this trend to continue. As many of these government funds invest in US financial firms, it will help the US dollar and bring the world much closer together. The FX market is closed on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although there are some housing and manufacturing numbers on Wednesday, there are no major US reports until Thursday.
He has never wavered to political pressure and has always tried to prepare the markets months in advance for any potential change to interest rates. As the ripple effects of the US subprime problems caused a major liquidity crisis in the credit markets, the ECB was the first central bank to respond with a massive liquidity injection. According to the FT, for a central bank that is not yet 10 years old, the ultimate compliment was paid when the venerable US Federal Reserve and Bank of England followed suit.
This morning, he continued to remind the markets that the ECB will be focusing on inflation and their desire to contain it will not be distracted by the interest rates cuts from the US and Federal Reserve. Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro. With most traders out for the holidays, the trends that began last week have continued well into this week.
No one is willing to stick their hand out and start picking a bottom in the British pound this late in the year. Instead many traders are probably happy to end the breakeven and will take this opportunity to collect themselves before start over again in January. As UK economic data continues to show signs of weakness, there are no buyers left in the market. This morning, Hometrack reported 0.
They also predict that the number of closings will fall by 17 percent and that prices will rise by just 1 percent next year. The housing market has been the back bone of UK growth for many years and now that this sector of the economy is crumbling, growth could suffer greatly in Commodity prices are basically unchanged on the day which indicates that the fluctuations of these currency pairs are largely driven by risk appetite.
Of course that too is distorted given the lack of liquidity across the financial markets today. There are Japanese data scheduled for release Monday and Tuesday night. These reports which include the BSI manufacturing index, the corporate service price index and supermarket sales will not be market moving. Also, the BoJ minutes will simply reinforce what the market knows already, which is that interest rates in Japan will remain low for a very long time.
Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum. Posted by jang at 1: Sunday, November 04, The dollar is out of control, so stay short with a tight stop. However, it should first enjoy a temporary reprieve. The pair is very overbought, but stay with it until there is some proof it will go down. Immediate resistance is seen at 1. Above it, strong resistance is seen at 1. Next resistance is at 1. Distant Immediate support is at 1. Only a break below 1. Expect mixed trading to persist.
Initial support comes at There is a distant pivot low at The pair is severely overbought, but hold long positions with a tight stop. Initial resistance is at 2. The next level is 2. Immediate support is seen at 2. Next level is at 2. Hold short positions in this oversold pair until there is a confirmed bottom. Initial resistance is at 1. Posted by jang at 6: Friday, November 02, How are Traders Positioned for Payrolls?
Once again, bond traders got it right. Yesterday, even though bond yields increased the stock market rallied and the US dollar sold off. The reaction in the equity and currency markets suggested that traders thought the Fed was more dovish than hawkish while the reaction in bonds suggested otherwise. Today, the equity and currency markets have finally caught up with the bond market, with the Dow down over points and the US dollar up across the board.
Economists beg to differ however and Fed fund futures indicate that there is still a greater than 50 percent chance for a December rate cut. In the immediate future, equity and currency traders are both positioned for a strong payrolls report. With the market so divided, NFPs could decide not only who is right, but also whether the US dollar has hit a bottom. The market is currently looking for 82k jobs to have been created in the month of October. However following the sharp increase in the ADP report and the drop in layoffs according to Challenger, the whisper number is far higher k.
If job growth is anywhere near k, expect a sharp dollar rally, but if it is below 90k, speculation of a December rate cut will return. The arguments in favor of strong payroll growth far outweigh the arguments supporting weak growth. Not only did private sector payrolls increase materially last month and layoffs dropped, but the Hudson Employment index, Monster.
We do not get the service sector ISM report until Monday, which is after payrolls, but the employment component of the manufacturing ISM report hit the highest level since April. The only reasons why payrolls could be weak is the rise in jobless claims and fall in consumer confidence. If the labor market is really recovering, confidence would not be the weakest in 2 years.
There are still a lot skeptics out there who do not believe that the US economy has seen its worst and it all boils down to what non-farm payrolls will mean for interest rates. If there is a reason for traders to believe that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates, then the current recovery in the US dollar will turn on a dime.
Nothing is certain until we see payrolls and even then we need to watch how the market reacts to it. The liquidation of carry trades has sent the Swiss franc higher against the US dollar, Euro and British pound, but carry trade related flow may not be the only reason why the Swissie is stronger.